DAILY SNAP: SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY; SNOW FRIDAY??

There is a slightly, enhanced possibility of stronger storms on Wednesday. And, unlike Saturday, when the storms were approaching the coast they were sheared apart by a marine layer of wind which lessened the storm. These storms winds will be coming more from the S-SW. So, they will be fueled by warmer winds aloft and colder air behind it. Thus, stronger storms. I would just plan on a typical rainstorm.

Then after that the weather gets interesting for Friday. The cold air behind the storm will be colder than the last front on Saturday and a VERY WEAK system will be passing from the NW. It could touch off some snow showers come Friday afternoon. It really amounts to nothing, but it is what it is. So, just be prepared for definite colder Friday and perhaps a snowflake or two passing by us. More later, but again, don’t get excited at all.

snap
A 15% chance of severe storms on Wednesday for the entire area in yellow. 
screenshot
INCOMING MARCH STORMS. MARCH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE VERY STORMY AT THE START. AND THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR AROUND FOR A SURPRISE! 

DAILY SNAP: Temperatures gradually increase; Repeat performance of storms Wed-Thurs. Some could be severe.

Temperatures gradually increase starting today, but then that will usher in some strong storms Wed-Thursday time frame. Yet, we could see rain from Tuesday through to Thursday.  Storms could be very strong. A repeat performance is possible, but if your further north in Central PA or NE PA then those concerns are more at risk for severe storms. Then March comes in and brings Winter back with cold weather. Hope you had a great weekend!

screenshot

MARCH ROARS IN AND COLD, MARCH SURPRISES COULD BE ON TAP

Well, I had to be called into duty by Mother Nature yesterday. Thanks for the various reports. The storms weren’t as bad, even the most intense cells didn’t really make too much hay. I think it was some atmospheric shearing as the storm rolled in, the sun hadn’t heated the atmosphere as much as a summer day storm does. Thus, the cells didn’t have as much charge in them as they would. Glad for us!

Now, where do we go from here? March is rolling in come Wednesday. And it will be announcing itself with vigor. A line of storms will be rolling in from the west. Again, another powerful front which could deliver the same potency the storms yesterday gave us; however, because temperatures will be significantly cooler this week, we shouldn’t see that strong of violent weather  that much of the area saw yesterday.

Then we see the first 10 plus days of March. And what a ride it could be. The cold air, which has been locked in Canada, and a non-factor this Winter finally the PV (Polar Vortex) gets broken down enough to funnel an enormous amount of cold air down our way. Troughs develop in the East, as depicted in the graphic of upper-air atmosphere, and blocking over Greenland, noted in neon green, opens up the potential for a surprise in early March. I’m not saying anything. One thing is certain: March’s LION ROAR is going to be heard!

coldair
Upper air 500MB chart has been showing for days an opening up of the Polar Express heading south for the second week of March. A disturbance in the southern jet(noted in black) and blocking in Greenland (noted in the green outline) , and the players are on the field for what could be an interesting closing act of Winter 2016-17.

UPDATE: STORMS TODAY COULD BE SEVERE IN SOME PLACES

Just a quick note, because I want to make you aware and not sleep on the job, some storms today could be severe in some areas mostly in the area I have boxed off in this picture. Then behind that a BIG temperature change Sunday morning! Main hours for severe storms could be between 3-5PM. I wouldn’t sweat it too much. Yet, I just want to keep you aware :}  Have a wonderful Saturday!

screenshot

DENSE FOG UNTIL 10-11AM..THEN 70+..WEEKEND RAIN..THEN MARCH…BRRRRRR!

Dense fog until about 10-11am. Then some “iffy” weather. Not glorious sunshine, but not dreaded, pouring rain either so it’s going to be kind of an in-between couple of days. Weekend looks like half and half , but we could see rain both days. Then next week March comes in, and it may be a cold start. The trend is, like I said last night, is trending colder for the start of March. We need to be careful about this false spring. Have a great day! I will “see” you on Sunday. screenshot.jpg

winter
The trend is for a colder stat to March. This would be for March 8th.

IS WINTER OVER? By Date, NO. By pattern, and other factors MEH.

winter Old Man Winter Still In Charge

You would think the answer to this question would be obvious this Winter. However, speaking from a logical forecast standpoint I would say “NO”.  Everything would tell you that Winter, for all intensive purposes is over. Yet, we have another 3 weeks or so. And the pattern doesn’t just flip into another season. It takes time to get into a rhythm. Then it settles into a template to follow for several weeks.

The atmosphere is continually cycling warm air and cold air across the country. And it just recycles between cold and warmer patterns over the poles.  The air is moderated by changes in the jet stream.  Troughs usually bring down colder air from Canada, while ridges bring warmer air up from the gulf. And when you have the interaction between the two you can get some significant storms. Especially in March as the cold and warm air compete for dominance in one area of the country.

From what I can see, looking 10 days down the road, is that March is coming in strong with storms that will be bringing down much colder air. And if the cold air sits around long enough we can still have a significant snowstorm. There is nothing though to suggest anything that significant, but I would look at March 4th through the 10th as a signal period of storminess and colder weather.  Winter is still here. It’s just hard to believe we didn’t really have one this year. Here is a reminder of what can happen in March:

Significant March Snowfalls Philadelphia/Delaware Area: 

March 1, 1941: 15 inches

March 12th through 14th 1993: 10+ inches

March 5th, 2015 : 12+ inches 

March 16th and 17th 2015: Significant Winter Storm hit mostly southern Delaware but all areas of the state. 10+ inches for areas down south. 4+ inches upstate. 

 

 

DAILY SNAP:A Couple of Threats For Rain and Saturday looks rainy..March looking like Winter’s last revenge

A couple of threats for rain the rest of this week, and then Saturday looks like steady rain most of the day. Some of the remnants of the western storms are breaking our way. Early March is looking like a minor return to wintry weather as Winter tries to make any attempt to make a comeback for the last few weeks of it’s official life. There are threats, but for a March storm of any significance it must be the perfect set-up.  Have a GREAT DAY!! 

screenshot

TORNADOES IN DELAWARE: RARE, BUT NOT THAT RARE

Since 1954 Delaware has had 62 documented tornadoes. The most recent data goes up to 2015. This is roughly one a year. The Fujita scale, the measured strength of a tornado on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the worst, most of Delaware’s tornadoes have been F-2’s. There has been one F-3 recorded. That was April 1961 near New Castle Airport. There have been only 3 deaths reported in that time frame as well. And most of the Tornadoes were below Dover and points south. That makes sense since Delaware is a coastal plain with more than 90% of the state is flat. The northern part is the Piedmont which has seen fewer tornadoes in this time period. There have also been lots of F-0 which is to say they probably were tornadoes but didn’t do much of any damage and weren’t on the ground for that long of a period.

The conditions are ripe though for the state to experience tornadoes yet since our topography is varied with urban, rural, suburban areas. There is a difference between a storm that has straight line winds versus a storm that can spawn tornadoes.  The damage that tornadoes can do to an area are quite obvious. Straight line winds often damage a specific area and take a more direct path. Tornadoes are notorious of hitting one area and leaving another area totally less impacted.  There is a brilliant report called the Delaware Project: Tornadoes to read more I’m posting the link:

Tornado History Project Delaware

tornado-project