“When Pigs Fly!” or REAL? Thursday Potential.

HEY!! I’m back.. Just thought I would post not a waiving of the white flag but just a “Hey, things didn’t work out like I thought…” So, that’s done. I’m rested. I feel good. Let’s go! Go Falcons!

I know this is going to set off a HUGE amount of comments and shares, but PLEASE do not take this for anything then a potential set-up for later in the week. This would be Thursday morning/afternoon time frame. And I’m going to do a post tomorrow after I see more trends; however, as fate would have it this could be something. Now, there is NOTHING this Winter that would tell me this is correct. This system coming from the SW and spinning off the coast would have to be perfectly timed with a cold front moving to our north Tues-Wed. Now, that system will be a warm storm or all rain. That would be followed by a significant shift on it’s heels of this system. I don’t really believe it right now, because this system would need a clear path to ramp up. The rain system would have to move completely out of the picture because there would be no room in the atmosphere for this to develop right.  And the cold front would have to rush in from the north. So, you know all the factors that would have to hit just right for this thing to explode over us with lots of snow.

I will keep an eye out. Have fun tonight wherever you go! Be safe to after the game as well. Lots of crazy drivers!

This would be a system coming in Thursday on the heels of a rain storm Tues-Wed. This would be a thread the needle type where it would have to be cold enough for this thing to churn out a couple of inches. Will keep an eye on it. I like the set-up though. Yet, “When Pigs Fly!” has been the adage all Winter long. I know your level of skepticism. I’m there with you.


This is my “mea culpa”.  Not that Winter 2017 is completely over, but from the standpoint of  weather predictions this one is all over the place. It’s shattered in a gazillion places. There were several factors that even though I thought we were going to have a long, cold, snowy Winter these factors literally broke the back of Winter of 2017.  Those factors were:

  • A stronger Polar Vortex (PV). This kept the cold locked up in Canada. We have had transient cold shots, but not sustained cold that would have helped turn some of these harmless overrun storms into potential blockbuster storms. The warming over the Arctic wasn’t strong enough to change the dynamics of a strong PV.  We had pieces fall south, but not enough to keep the cold sustainable.
  • Very strong western winds  from the Equator. There is an index called the QBO.  If I were to go into it you might fall asleep. Take my word for it. It was hugely positive in January +14. Anything over +8 is super strong. The winds are way above in the atmosphere. They go in different directions every year. These winds kept the Pacific Jet extremely progressive and zonal from west to east. It was just strong enough to keep the Pacific Jet from phasing with the northern stream. There was very little trough in the East. Plus, we had no real long progressed cold air settle in the East.  This combination led to warm air being poured in that raised the temperatures in the area.  This led to drought relieving rain.  Yet, a snow famine. No forecaster worth their salt could have predicted this. This one was the learning experience for me.
  • Finally, the La Nina. I had my doubts that this was going to be a “weak” La Nina pattern. EVERY, forecast had this not impacting anything our weather at all this Winter. Guess what? It did. Although, still by statistics, it was weak. It was just strong enough to throw the pattern into it’s usual dry, wet pattern in the East. By the graphic, it shows you that the systems coming across the country zoom past us to the north. And unless we get a phased storm with a trough in the East, then we get rain instead of snow.  The mean trough was in the west all Winter long. C’est la vie!
  • Winter isn’t over from a reality standpoint, but the outlook doesn’t look good. So, instead of hoping, praying, whatever it’s time to MOVE ON and finish out the rest of the season. Then enjoy a glorious Spring! 
  • I thank all of you. Your tremendous! And let’s have our continued fun following this crazy weather we have in Delaware . lanina-jet-wintertime-pattern