Tonight, I would LOVE to have told you that I spent all weekend looking for one last Mega-Storm that would solve all of our Winter blues, but I meant well :} I found it , but it’s not looking “good”. Everyone has been talking about it. I haven’t. I mentioned it, but didn’t want to explode all things over the Internet when I had no firm evidence of anything. The graphic above shows the complex nature of what has to happen and where things are now. We still have “time”, but the clock is running out. There are multiple things that have to happen let me explain:
- First, the two jet streams are in the wrong positions. The northern jet is screaming out ahead of the UL low that is the southern jet. The northern jet is the cold air. We would have that in place. CHECK..Yet, we need the UL low out ahead of the northern jet. We DON’T have that, yet. They should be in the positions noted by the black X’s. By Tuesday, this is where they need to be to form the storm. If they met up there where I have the two positions, then we have something significant. If not, we have nothing but snow flurries on Thursday. Maybe not even that.
2. We need some type of blocking high or something to slow the northern stream down. That would allow the southern piece to catch up. Kind of wishful thinking at this point, but a possibility.
3. We still have time. Once this storm in New England pulls away the models tend to do better with one system at at time. Once it leaves, it gives the other storm room in the atmosphere to do something. Also, the data is more easily interpreted.
4. Our winter has been all about hype and hope. Why would this system behave normally and come together and deliver us a Winter’s worth of snow in one storm? Right, you guessed it. Why would it? There has been nothing to suggest a pattern like the one New England has been in for the last week.