Our first Open Blog topic tonight was suggested by Mark McKinney. Thanks Mark!
The American Global Forecasting System is one of a variety of weather models that forecasters use, hopefully as a tool, to give a forecast. There are two major weather models: the GFS and the EURO. The GFS for a long time, was the only model people used. Yet, with the advent of the EURO a lot of people find the EURO more reliable. When used for combined forecasts, the GFS is still a reliable albeit not favored weather model. This Winter the GFS has done a balanced job. At times, it is consistent with storm systems. However, outside of 6-7 days the GFS becomes less reliable and at times, bizarre looks at weather coming to a particular area. I’ve shown you many pics from the GFS, but I try to keep it within a 3-5 day look. After that, the GFS could show you a massive blizzard lasting 3 days then a warm-up to 80 degrees. It can be extreme.
The GFS runs four times per day at 6AM, 12PM, 6PM, and 12AM. So, at least you don’t have to wait up to 12 hours to wait like the Euro. However, I’ve also noticed that the two models often compete for what it wants to show us. The Euro may lead by showing a major snowstorm, while the GFS shows us nothing. Then two days later the GFS plays catch-up. And sometimes, vice-versa.
I like the GFS. Yet, I use it as a tool not as gospel! Take care