IS WINTER OVER? By Date, NO. By pattern, and other factors MEH.

winter Old Man Winter Still In Charge

You would think the answer to this question would be obvious this Winter. However, speaking from a logical forecast standpoint I would say “NO”.  Everything would tell you that Winter, for all intensive purposes is over. Yet, we have another 3 weeks or so. And the pattern doesn’t just flip into another season. It takes time to get into a rhythm. Then it settles into a template to follow for several weeks.

The atmosphere is continually cycling warm air and cold air across the country. And it just recycles between cold and warmer patterns over the poles.  The air is moderated by changes in the jet stream.  Troughs usually bring down colder air from Canada, while ridges bring warmer air up from the gulf. And when you have the interaction between the two you can get some significant storms. Especially in March as the cold and warm air compete for dominance in one area of the country.

From what I can see, looking 10 days down the road, is that March is coming in strong with storms that will be bringing down much colder air. And if the cold air sits around long enough we can still have a significant snowstorm. There is nothing though to suggest anything that significant, but I would look at March 4th through the 10th as a signal period of storminess and colder weather.  Winter is still here. It’s just hard to believe we didn’t really have one this year. Here is a reminder of what can happen in March:

Significant March Snowfalls Philadelphia/Delaware Area: 

March 1, 1941: 15 inches

March 12th through 14th 1993: 10+ inches

March 5th, 2015 : 12+ inches 

March 16th and 17th 2015: Significant Winter Storm hit mostly southern Delaware but all areas of the state. 10+ inches for areas down south. 4+ inches upstate. 

 

 

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