OPEN BLOG NIGHT : Welcome to the “WIND” STATE!

Image result for Wind

Delaware is very well-known for it being the “First State” since it signed the Constitution in December of 1787. And we are proud of it! However, maybe less so well known is the fact that Delaware is very much a “Wind” state.  And recent storms have left me wondering, at least, WHY is Delaware such a windy state? There are some definitive factors.

Factor 1: Geography:  Delaware is mostly a flat state, but it’s topography running mostly north to south, allows a tremendous amount of winds from the ocean, Delaware Bay, and Chesapeake to converge all over the state. Without any elevation to speak of, Delaware’s highest point is only over 450 feet high, the winds just criss-cross the state at will.

Factor 2: Coastal Plain:  Delaware is located in the coastal plain. So, Nor’easter’s , and storms that produce high winds only pound the coast, and inland with more high wind issues that can cost millions of dollars in damage to property and crops.

Factor 3: Straight line winds: Since there are no obstructions except the Appalachian Mountains west of us, during the summer straight line winds reek havoc on the Delaware landscape. Depending on track some do dissolve due to easterly shear winds from the ocean. However, these winds can cause massive outages and damage when they hit.

Factor 4: Coastal Storms: Delaware, on average, gets hit with 30-40 coastal storms a year. And if you get the “every now and then” hurricane track storm, Delaware spends in the billions for sand, snow, and property damage.  And if you add in projected winds from a Nor’easter downstate can be anywhere from 60-65MPH. Upstate winds are no slouch either from these storms. However, since we are about 100 miles north of the beaches those winds are lessened to a degree. Yet, still strong enough to bring down trees to cause significant damage.

So, there you have a very “brief” but interesting explanation of why Delaware is such a windy state. And if you bike, like me, you certainly know your going to get help from those winds and when those headwinds make 10 miles feel like 20 :}

LIGHT RAIN SYSTEMS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY…THEN BEAUTIFUL WARM(60’s) SUNSHINE

I think you pretty much get the picture(See the graphics today)

It’s going to seem kind of gloomy out the next three or so days, but that’s mainly because of the weather systems today and tomorrow. A little known weather fact called a “back door” front came through last night and is keeping temperatures down, because of the winds have shifted from S and SW to the E and NE. Thus, it’s keeping a cool breeze and throwing back some light precipitation. And, two weather systems approaching will add some light rain. it shouldn’t be too torrential or drought busting. Nonetheless, from now until Tuesday it will seem like we live in Seattle.  I want to go to Seattle! :} Let me know if you’ve been there !

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh24_trend (1)
A graphic showing us the next few days of BLAH weather. This is not a big system. Nothing much to worry about other than light rain showers.  Yet, add an onshore flow of air from the east you get enhanced rain showers that are persistent off and on variety. 

screenshot (44)

SNAP: CHILL, THEN WARM AND WARMER..RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT

BURRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR! Yep. Twenty degrees as a type this. Then it will warm really fast. By Saturday, this morning will be a distant memory. Yet, it will rain. A significant system will come through starting Sunday night. And it may be a few days of rain. I will point the systems out in my Sunday video review.

Enjoy your weekend, enjoy your NCAA brackets. I have to pick up the pieces. I’m still in it, but it’s very fragile right now. VERY fragile! :} Happy Weekend! Adiosscreenshot (42)

SNAP: Not much to worry about, Cold today and tomorrow, followed by a nice warm-up for the weekend

As you can see today and tomorrow look to be ordinary Spring days with it trying to figure whether it wants to be Spring or Winter. Cold temperatures at night! Real cold. Then Saturday were looking at temperatures in the low 70’s! Yes!  Don’t worry about Friday except there could be some wet/frozen rain as a small little system comes in overnight on Thursday. It’s in the grids, but I’d pay it no concern at all. Have a great day

screenshot (40)

The World Of Weather Models: Adding to the confusion, but they are the tools of the business. They are just that, TOOLS.

Why? Why do “we” use them? One of my teachers said they are “tools”. They don’t make a forecast. Yet, when we get into BIG storms EVERYONE uses them. And they only add to our confusion of what is going to happen . Yet, we need them. With every run, ensemble, etc.. we need them to be “right” because the impact affects millions of people. The Euro short for European, the NAM(North American Mesoscale), the GFS (or American model) , and the count goes on and on. 

What we aim for is a consensus of the models. We look for consistency. We look for that time period (usually less than 48 hours) for that slightest shift which can make all the difference between a blizzard, and a sleet storm instead as last week was the case. Yet, WHY are the meteorologists continuing to get wrong.  Well, they are “selling” the storm to us. It’s a business. So, the more people who pop on their channel it’s a good thing for them. They are dedicated, but it’s very difficult when your trying to do your “job”, and have to sell it as well.

And the TV personalities go on the backs of the other pros-NOAA- who should have the information to give us the BEST forecast.  And they keep confusing us with warnings and advisories, “most likely”, and other types of forecasting tools that lend to even more confusing information feeds.  Yet, they get it right more often than not. 

In an article written by Harry Enten for the blog 538 he hit the nail on the head when he said: 

“Meteorology deals in probabilities and uncertainty. Models, and the forecasters who use those models, aren’t going to be perfect.”

So, that leaves me at my original thought: Models are, at best, “tools” of the business. Not gospel. 

 

 

SNAP: MONDAY HIGH WALL BLOCK;TEMPS SLOWLY CREEP UP BY THE END OF THE WEEK; LOOKS GOOD!

Well, a lot different than this time last week when I was writing about a potential epic storm that never materialized, again.  Now, we enter into a transition period as we are searching for consistent warmer temperatures.  I wouldn’t expect an automatic change, but it’s slowly evolving. And I wouldn’t expect any significant threats of spring snows, but as long as cold air hangs around you never know.  If you have any suggestions for Open Blog night, or would want to write an article and send it to my e-mail let me know. I’m sure you might have something important to say.

Have a GREAT MONDAY!

screenshot (35)

GRAPHIC: (SHOWS HIGH PRESSURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL USHER IN CLEARER WEATHER FOR MONDAY. MAYBE SOME RAIN TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD BUT NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE)

screenshot (34).jpg
CLEAR AS CRYSTAL. THREE MEGA HIGHS THAT WILL BLOCK ALL INCOMING SYSTEMS AND BRING BRIGHT, AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER MONDAY.