This Weekend: What Could It Be?

Writing this on a Monday when the a system is coming in for Saturday-Sunday time frame is a little like paying a fortune-teller to tell you what is going to happen in 10 years. Yet, I’m going to do it anyway! 

Let’s visit the players we need with pictures! :} : 

  1. Injection of Cold Air: We will have that. Friday there is a system dropping down from the plains. It’s an overrunning system. It may start off as a little rain, but there will be some steady flakes around Friday afternoon/night.  This will give us maybe a dusting to nothing. Yet, what it actually does is bring in the colder air. Not much to worry about that. However, you also have to worry that it is colder air. And nothing good happens with an injection of cold air when storms are around! 
  2. Blocking:  In weather terms, a blocking serves as a wall. Wherever it sets up, it prevents systems from leaving , or from temperatures from increasing and leaving cold air trapped. Usually, the blocking occurs around Greenland.  All indications are is that the blocking will be present. However, for snow weenies :} you don’t want that blocking to be too strong. It will then suppress weather systems further south. There are indications that the blocking will be strong but not overly powerful. We will have to see as the week goes by. 
  3. The Tracking: The track of this storm will be particularly interesting. A low coming out across the plains will be meeting up with a system dropping down from Canada. That will provide another shot of cold air coming into the storm. And it makes a big push our way from W to E.  This could produce a swath of snow from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. If the strength of the block is too strong, this will push the system further south. This would have significant impacts on storm totals. Right now, it’s the blocking which is going to dictate whether this storm hits us with full force. This is not a coastal storm so it’s a little easier to track being that it’s a land or overrunning system. 
  4. Storm Threat: The storm threat area is from Missouri all the way to the East Coast and south of New York. This is not a “New England” storm. Thank GOSH! 
  5. My Opinion: I think we need to wait a few more days. It’s a great set-up but there are so many things/factors that could impact any component of the storm. It’s not even on the North American continent yet. Confidence level is: low-moderate :} Need more time to ripen :} Yet, I like the trends :} 

 

screenshot (4)
FRESH INJECTION OF COLD AIR FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
screenshot (5)
The Northern and Southern streams have to merge. The northern stream provides more cold air for the storm. 
screenshot (6)
The Snow Threat Area is anywhere from Missouri to the East Coast south of New York City.

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