MODEL HUGGING THIS STORM..NOT A GOOD THING TO DO

What happens 24 or so hours out for any storm, is that people start model hugging every run of every model. However, what I want to explain tonight is that the 500mb chart hardly changes.  It stays amazingly consistent and really is the best way to tell what will probably happen.

And each of the model runs with all their variances have pretty much kept the upper atmosphere the same. The new NAM is running as I write this so I will have to use that as a fresh run. So, the reason WHY we are not getting much with this storm is that it’s two pieces. One with a northern stream(Clipper) and then we have a coastal low forming off the coast. It’s that second piece that is the key to everything. It means the difference between literally a coating to an inch and possibly 4-5 inches with a coastal re-development. So, here is what each 500mb chart is showing and what would need to happen for us to get a bigger storm. Let me just say I never was overly confident about this from the start. Here we go:

 

 

screenshot (90)
This is the EURO model. It shows a positively tilted trough that forms a weak wave too far south and east away from the coast resulting in flurries from the first system and NOTHING from the second development. 

 

screenshot (89)
The GFS has been showing a deep trough, but it comes in so fast it has no chance to develop or go neutral. Thus, it forms a wave WAY out to sea. So, we get a very weak clipper that throws a coating to an inch across our parts. That trough would have to be tilted more negative or neutral then form a wave closer to the coast giving us a chance for additional amounts. Likely not going to happen at this point. 

 

That’s pretty much it folks. I mean this event starting tomorrow night COULD overperform, but I wouldn’t bank on it. At this point, it really won’t be much than eye candy Wednesday morning as most non-treated services will be snow covered. Otherwise, kids do your homework Tuesday night!   Adios 

 

If you have questions you can always leave a comment, or leave me a note on my Facebook page. 

 

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