You probably think, “It took him all day to come up with a map of 1-3 inches?” Well, yes it did and with good reason. Everyone was so jolted yesterday with the NAM showing a MAJOR snowstorm for the entire East Coast that once that map was posted by someone it lit up the airways of social media. Well, things came back down to Earth today BUT let me say I did so much analysis my head feels like a meteorological computer that’s been overstuffed with data. So, here it is and below is my reasoning:
- Tracks today have been taking the storm very far East out to sea, but still, the main storm is an upper-level low which will cause snow to break out tomorrow early evening. It will start as rain but will change to snow sometime before 8 or 9pm.
- The coastal storm has been shifting and trending East out to the open Atlantic. However, the players have not been fully modeled. One model the NAM 3K has a phased storm and pulls the storm up the coast close enough to enhance the upper-levels of the atmosphere. Thus, causing an invigorated storm Monday night into Tuesday morning. Yet, how close to the coast does it get? That’s the KEY question. A more phased storm early in its evolution and northeastern track up the coast will provide enough precipitation to give us a good shot of snow yet not a knockout blow.
- SREF ensembles which show different climatology factors has been showing a mean average snowfall of 6 inches. Now, I’m not ready to go as high as that but it went up all day long. And nothing really supports it because it tends to overestimate snowfall amounts. Again, it’s a tool, not gospel. My thinking it is noticing a more phased storm tracking closer to the coast. In other words, the low tracks more westward. A mere 60 miles shift west will DRAMATICALLY change the equation.
- This storm resembles the January 4th “BOMB” of the coast. Within 24 hours we were supposed to get snowflakes. We wound up getting 3-5 inches. These storms are notorious last moment shifters.
- THIS HAS A VERY HIGH BUST POTENTIAL BUT THIS IS NOT A BLOCKBUSTER STORM FOR US. IT HAS POTENTIAL.
If you have additional questions please post them to the Facebook page. Adios! Good night!