The reason why I waited ALL DAY yesterday until I made a first and final call was that of the difference between a major snowstorm for us and a “nothing” scenario was this graphic. At one point in the afternoon yesterday, one model showed an early phasing that would have allowed us to have a major snowstorm. That quickly faded.
There was no question that there would be a storm. There was no question we would get some snow. It was a matter of how the two streams phased. In the first graphic, you can see the northern stream and southern stream. They remain separate. So, therefore, it allows the southern stream to drift out to sea quicker.
The second graphic shows how the two streams interact. In this scenario, they do phase but it’s WAY too late for the Mid-Atlantic. The two streams would have had to phase earlier before the southern stream escapes out to sea. This would have allowed the southern stream to gain some latitude and pull the moisture closer to the coast. Thus, the difference between a coating to an inch/two or 6 inches is what is shown below. And that is winter life in our neck of the woods.