The weather is nice today but icy this morning on the roads. Weekend looking 1/2 good and half bad. I know that’s kind of a common, basic summary but overall the weekend storm looks iffy like 70/30 that it won’t happen. One model keeps showing it, while the other just has it drifting harmlessly out to sea. I’m leaning on it not happening at this point. So, if anything happens dramatically over this weekend I will be back with updates. For now, I’m off until Sunday with the Sunday Slide and there are some changes coming which I will need your opinions. Adios for now! Have a good weekend!
The primary low in the big circle is handing off the primary energy to the low off the coast. The storm is brewing and about to get serious overnight. Pressures will be dropping significantly. Winds will be howling Friday afternoon.
Is winter over? The short answer is “NO”. Obviously, with Saturday night’s little surprise snow event, you can’t say definitively anything is over. On Tuesday it will be 70 and Wednesday it will be 75. Anyone would say that. However, it’s looking more like we have another full month of old man winter.
The Set-Up: Believe it or not, the next two weeks are the prep stages for an interesting March. Last weekend there was a stratospheric warming event or SWE. This is where the Polar Vortex was literally split into two parts. This was to create a spilling of cold air into the United States. Yet, that takes time. It’s cold in the Mid-West. Even though it was going to be above normal here in the East the cold air is seeping back into the western part of the country and slowly coming this way.
Negative NAO: A negative NAO is an atmospheric teleconnection which when positive doesn’t create blocking in the atmosphere over Greenland. Thus, when winter storms come into our region they come and go. There is nothing to slow them down and allows them to, in a sense, miss us or not contain any cold air that is around long enough. In the next few weeks, the NAO is going to go severely negative. When it goes negative it allows blocking up north. It also sustains the cold weather longer.
Thus, it sets up the possibility of a potential storm in the East that even though we are in March it doesn’t matter. Now, it doesn’t guarantee one but it provides a set-up where we get our most significant storms and sometimes historic storms.
We shall see if March comes in like a lion!
Oh, to live on the FALL LINE! Isn’t it fun with systems like this? It’s a fact of life for winters around here as long as anyone of us has been living here.
Essentially, the “Fall Line” is the freezing line. In any snow storm where that line sets up who gets rain and who gets snow. It’s the “Infamous” I-95 line. If you live north of the line, you will get snow. If you are below it you won’t get snow. It’s really that simple. Now, you can be at 33-35 degrees and still get snow, but dynamic cooling has to take place during the storm in order for there to be intense snow. Also, vorticity in upward motion increases the chances of significant snow. Again, where you are above that line is significant as to who gets what.
So, tomorrow’s system is even more precarious because that rain/snow line will make all the difference between who gets mostly rain, or mainly snow, or a mix. Don’t be surprised for there to be a surprise spot of 4 inches somewhere. However, most accumulations will be from 1-3. If your well north of the line, it probably will be all snow. Yet, this is a quick hitter. It will be GONE in under 7 hours tomorrow night.
Start Time: 4PM-5PM
End Time: 1 AM
Heaviest Period: 8pm-1AM
Let me try to explain this in simple terms: You’re throwing a dart from about 30 feet away from the dart board. The bullseye seems like an impossibility. Yet, if your eyes are strong enough you just may be able to hit it. You are experienced, but this is a tough throw. Everything has to go right. Correct?
That’s the equivalent of what the storm on Saturday night has to do. It has to hit a window of opportunity so small that if ONE thing goes wrong you end up with nothing. The sample graphic is from the evening GFS. Notice the two streams of the jet stream-northern and southern streams. The southern stream must phase with that northern piece, but if it’s weak as currently modeled all we are going to get is a progressively weak wave of moisture that delivers the equivalent of a coating overnight Saturday into Sunday. This southern piece needs to be stronger, out of ahead of the northern piece, and then phase somewhere near Indiana or Ohio. Then it just might hit the bulls eye-us with 4-6 inches of snow.
Anyone good at darts? :}