“This year’s predictions include heavy precipitation for Jan. 20-23, Feb. 4-7, Feb. 16-19, March 1-3 and March 20-23. A map published by the almanac says it simply for the northeast: “cold, snowy.”
SOMETIMES, MAYBE, OLD SCHOOL METEOROLOGY IS THE BEST BET
March 21st: A MAJOR NOR’EASTER THAT DUMPED UPWARDS OF +12 INCHES OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
UPDATE: Well, Good Morning Delaware! HAPPY SPRING!
We have a Major Snowstorm coming our way tonight into tomorrow. And overnight the stakes just went up a little. The whole state is in play now. Even downstate near the beaches where we thought it would be mostly white rain is now in the picture of at least 2-4 inches of snow.
We have a Winter Storm Warning posted. That means “RUN!” No, just hunker down and enjoy the ride tomorrow. Stay inside, warm, and cozy! More details later. Have a great day!
NEW CASTLE COUNTY (TALLEYVILLE to SMYRNA) +6-10 inches of mostly snow. Localized spots could see upwards of a foot of snow.
KENT COUNTY (SMYRNA TO GEORGETOWN) +4 to 6 inches of mostly snow but you might take longer to change over to snow due to temperatures at the onset of the storm. Localized spots could see up to 8 inches.
SUSSEX COUNTY (GEORGETOWN TO THE BEACHES) +2 to 4 inches. You might struggle to reach the higher end but places away from the beaches could see the 4+.
UPDATE: This is for the first system Monday night into Tuesday. Now, we will be dealing with moderate temperatures to start. So, unless it comes down hard Monday night we won’t have a lot of accumulation Tuesday morning. Yet, as the system starts to intensify heading off the coast we will pick up additional accumulation but it will be slushy snow. Tuesday night we could get some additional accumulation as the system pulls in colder air. So, in general, a slushy 1-4 inches down to Dover. Messy. CONFIDENCE METER: LOW BUST METER: HIGH
FIRST STORM MONDAY-TUESDAY
The reason why I waited ALL DAY yesterday until I made a first and final call was that of the difference between a major snowstorm for us and a “nothing” scenario was this graphic. At one point in the afternoon yesterday, one model showed an early phasing that would have allowed us to have a major snowstorm. That quickly faded.
There was no question that there would be a storm. There was no question we would get some snow. It was a matter of how the two streams phased. In the first graphic, you can see the northern stream and southern stream. They remain separate. So, therefore, it allows the southern stream to drift out to sea quicker.
The second graphic shows how the two streams interact. In this scenario, they do phase but it’s WAY too late for the Mid-Atlantic. The two streams would have had to phase earlier before the southern stream escapes out to sea. This would have allowed the southern stream to gain some latitude and pull the moisture closer to the coast. Thus, the difference between a coating to an inch/two or 6 inches is what is shown below. And that is winter life in our neck of the woods.