The reason why I waited ALL DAY yesterday until I made a first and final call was that of the difference between a major snowstorm for us and a “nothing” scenario was this graphic. At one point in the afternoon yesterday, one model showed an early phasing that would have allowed us to have a major snowstorm. That quickly faded.
There was no question that there would be a storm. There was no question we would get some snow. It was a matter of how the two streams phased. In the first graphic, you can see the northern stream and southern stream. They remain separate. So, therefore, it allows the southern stream to drift out to sea quicker.
The second graphic shows how the two streams interact. In this scenario, they do phase but it’s WAY too late for the Mid-Atlantic. The two streams would have had to phase earlier before the southern stream escapes out to sea. This would have allowed the southern stream to gain some latitude and pull the moisture closer to the coast. Thus, the difference between a coating to an inch/two or 6 inches is what is shown below. And that is winter life in our neck of the woods.
I know. We have just experienced two Nor’easters in two weeks and you are probably crying UNCLE at this point. Yet, it’s getting increasingly likely we might have to go through this one more time this coming weekend Sunday into Monday. And this one, if all the elements come together right this one could end the winter season with quite the bang.
And I don’t want to hype anything, but as you can see in the graphic above this one takes a scary track. A shortwave drops from the Pacific NW into the plains. It dives down to the Gulf, picks up moisture and then heads right for the coast. And there is still a block to the north although it isn’t super strong is strong enough to pool some cold air into the East Coast region. There is a noticeable ridge in the Pacific. In the graphic, you can clearly see the bulge. This helps the trough dig into the Gulf states where it picks up moisture. Now, the day to day runs of the EURO has been showing it sliding it off the East Coast to the south with no harm, no foul. Yet, the ensembles of both the GFS and EURO have been showing a big storm around the March 12th-13th time period. The GFS has been showing something more consistent day to day and on their ensembles as well. Again, a suspicion that if the EURO picks up on the radar in the coming days we could be dealing with our THIRD Nor’easter in as many weeks and the potential for an end of winter event that would certainly cap a wild, willy, and wacky Winter 2017-2018.
To be continued!
The storm is right on track. Righ now, we are in the heaviest banding. From now until about 3 or 4 snowfall rates will equate about an inch an hour. I’ve taken a GOES picture of the storm. It’s off the coast of NJ and the Delmarva. The GFS was oh so wrong. It’s further east and colder solution as modeled by the EURO and NAM. So, enjoy! I’ll make a video very soon.
I’m staying away from amounts. It’s too haphazard anymore so I’m giving you the general P-type throughout the event Tuesday night into Wednesday. Amounts right now range from 1-10. I’m not kidding about the high range either: